China's Imports Surged While Trade Surplus Plummeted in January 2018
On February 8, China's General Administration of Customs released January import and export data. Its import grew 36.9% YoY in USD terms, much higher than expected. Since the 2017 Spring Festival was on January 28, the import data in January last year were low. This is also a factor why the January data was much higher than expected. China's trade account in January (in RMB terms) is 135.8 billion yuan, with an expected value of 330 billion yuan and a previous value of 361.98 billion yuan; in UDS terms, a total of 20.34 billion USD and an expected 54.65 billion USD and previous value of 54.69 billion UDS, a significant reduction in the trade surplus of over 50%. In dollar terms, China's January imports increased 36.9% YoY and is expected to be 10.8%, the previous value up 4.5%. January exports grew 11.1% YoY and are expected to reach 10.8% and 10.9% of the previous value. In RMB terms, China import grew 30.2% YoY in January, with an expected value up 5.3% YoY and previous value up 0.9% YoY. January exports were up 6% YoY, with an expected value up 2.6% YoY and previous value up 7.4% YoY. In RMB terms, China's exports to the United States increased by 7.5% in January and imports from the United States increased by 20.5%. According to Market analysis, much higher than expected imports in January may be related to the following factors: (1) US dollar and yuan-denominated January import and export data are more than expected, Lunar New Year falls on different months is one of the reasons. (2) In USD terms, January imports were up 36.9% YoY. On the one hand, since the 2018 Spring Festival is in February and stores need to prepare goods in advance,On the other hand, in addition to the increase in the volume of commodity imports, prices have also contributed to the increase.(3) Since the Spring Festival falls on different month, the import growth in February is expected to drop significantly.The effect of RMB appreciation and export high base will be gradually reflected,there will be certain pressure to maintain the good start of export.