Two-child policy Cannot Change China's Real Fertility Decline
On January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics of China said that 17.23 million babies were born in China in 2017, down from 17.86 million in the previous year. In fact, this is the second year since the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, with the total number of births and birth rate declining all over the country. Although the second child policy has played a positive role to some extent, the number of second baby born in 2017 is about 8.8 million, an increase of 600,000 over 2016 and an increase of 2.3 million before the full decontrolling of the second child by 2015. In 2017, the number of births of the first child accounted for 42%, the second child 51%, the number of the second child born was 9% more than that of the first child. However, the second child birth rates in 2016 and 2017 mainly come from years of "backlog wishes" of people born in 1970s and 1980s. At present, among the population born in 1990s, most of them have a low level of intent of childbearing, and the overall trend is declining. The drop in annual number of birth in China is the first time since the government decontrolled its one-child policy. This appears to indicate that the reform failed to reverse the decline in fertility. Economists warned that this is a long-term threat to China's development. In fact, the declining birth rate in China is leading to a rapidly aging population and a shortage of labor. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the share of the elderly over the age of 60 and the population over the age of 65 has obviously risen. In 2017, the population of 60 years of age and above is 240.9 million, accounting for 17.3% of the total population, of which 65 and above is 158.31 million, accounting for 11.4% of the total population. The degree of population aging in China is accelerating and deepening. In addition, the proportion of the working-age population in the total population continued to decrease. The working-age population aged 16 to 59 was 901.99 million last year, accounting for 64.9% of the total population. In 2016, the national working-age population was 907.47 million, accounting for 65.6% of the total population.