Analysts' Expectations for Indian Economy Turn Optimistic
Recent news on vaccine development has pushed Indian stocks to record highs and boosted economic activity. A Reuters poll showed that most analysts raised their growth expectations based on progress on the COVID-19 vaccine and expected India's economy will recover from recession early next year, but it will be a moderate recovery. Relevant agencies have conducted follow-up surveys of nearly 50 analysts. For India’s economic growth in the two quarters of July-September and October-December this year, the October survey expected a contraction of 10.4% and 5%, respectively, while the November survey expected a contraction of 8.8% and 3%. It is obvious that analysts are becoming more optimistic. Analysts believe that India's economy will expand by 9% in the next fiscal year and 5.8% in 2022/23, but will not return to pre-epidemic levels any time soon. On November 18, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for India's economic growth for the current fiscal year to -10.3% from -14.8%. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for India's growth next fiscal year to 13% from 10.9% previously. India's economy recovered significantly in October and November due to the impact of holiday promotion, and some high frequency economic indicators, such as manufacturing PMI, service PMI, energy consumption, train freight volume and so on, all show a strong economic recovery. On November 26 the governor of the central bank of India also said that India's economic recovery was stronger than expected.