UBS Expects China's Economy to Grow 8.2% Next Year
Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, recently pointed out at Caijing's annual conference that China's goal of achieving income level of middle developed countries by 2035 could be achievable, and UBS is confident in China's long-term development. Talking about the macro economy, she noted that China's GDP will continue to grow rapid from 2020 to 2022. Driven by domestic consumption and exports, China's GDP is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2021. US GDP is expected to grow by 4% and global GDP is expected to grow by 6%. "With the global economy gradually emerging from this year's recession and with the accelerated vaccine development and marketing, we expect China's exports to grow by 11-12 per cent next year." Meanwhile, as the recovery continues, incomes and confidence of residents should improve further, boosting domestic consumption. Real estate activity and infrastructure investment are likely to weaken next year, given the likely weakening of policy support, but improved corporate revenues could lead to a significant rebound in manufacturing investment. When it comes to the pharmaceutical industry chain, UBS expects 20% of the world's population to be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of 2021.