Looking ahead to 2021, Deutsche bank expects China's economy growth rate will reach 9.5% next year, driven largely by consumption. Such strong growth will lay the foundation for the withdrawal of financial support policies during the epidemic, and China will be the first country in the world to "close the gates". The central bank will refocus on controlling overall leverage ratio and ensuring financial stability, with growth rate of social financing likely to slow down to 11% from 13% this year. In terms of interest rate policy, Deutsche Bank believes that the People's Bank of China will raise the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) interest rate twice in the second half of the year, with each "increase" by 10 basis points. If global economic growth accelerates, and inflation and asset prices, especially property prices, rise, China’s central bank could also "raise interest rates" earlier and on a larger scale. According to Deutsche Bank, the ratio of Chinese corporate debt to GDP has climbed from 151% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 164% in the third quarter of this year. The recent turmoil in bond market has reminded people that high-level corporate bonds remain a weak link and that state-owned companies may be the most vulnerable part of the credit crunch. Basically, Deutsche Bank predicts that both inflation and property prices in China will be under control in 2021, with CPI inflation of no more than 3% and property price growth of no more than 10%, helped by timely and targeted tightening policies at the national and local levels. As manufacturing enters a new cycle of capacity expansion, the investment bank predicts that China’s PPI will turn positive next year and manufacturing investment is likely to increase. In particular, demand for cars is likely to remain strong next year, leading to increased investment by carmakers and upstream suppliers. Regarding the RMB, Deutsche Bank sees the RMB trading around 6.2 per dollar by the end of 2021, implying a 2% appreciation against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.