Vacancy Rates in Beijing May Rise As High As 25% Next Year
Social distancing and economic disruption caused by the coronavirus epidemic have a greater impact on service-oriented cities like Beijing than manufacturing-oriented cities. Colliers International, a real estate consulting company, recently pointed out that as of the third quarter, the imbalance between supply and demand remains a core issue in Beijing's Grade A office property market. The new supply in the third quarter totaled about 120,000 square meters, with new projects located in Lufthansa and CBD respectively. In terms of demand, the net absorption in a single quarter is about 42,000 square meters, and the actual net absorption in the office property market after excluding self-use area is about 16,000 square meters, which has turned positive for the first time this year. The vacancy rate continued to climb to 17.5% in the third quarter, up about 1% month-on-month, while the rent continues to fall 2.6% to 357 yuan per square meter per month. Colliers International predicts that in the fourth quarter of this year, if the market receives new completions as scheduled, the new supply in the overall market in a single quarter will be close to 500,000 square meters, and the vacancy rates may exceed 20%. The new supply in 2021 is nearly 1.4 million square meters, excluding self-use, the impact on the market is about 1.1 million square meters. In the next 15 months, Beijing will see nearly 2 million square meters of new supply. Office vacancy rates in Beijing will be nearly 25% in 2021, according to Colliers International. All the new projects in the CBD core area and the Lize area are expected to enter the market next year, and 2021 will be the last year of the second round of high supply period in Beijing. For Grade B office buildings, a large amount of vacant space appears in the third quarter, the overall vacancy level increased by 1.4% to 14.9%, and the rent decreased by 1.9% to 241 yuan per square meter per month. The main reasons are as follows. On the one hand, with the gradual reduction of rents in Grade A buildings, some tenants who want to improve their office environment start to move from Grade B to Grade A. On the other hand, the continued impact of the epidemic on SMEs become evident in the data of the third quarter, and SMEs began to relocate or reduce their space or withdraw from the market. As for the future development of Beijing office market, Colliers International analyzes that the two new policies of free trade zone and demonstration zone will be important variables for Beijing office market in the next few years, which may bring new demand for Beijing office market.