Shandong Ranks Second to Last in the Proportion of Working-age People in the Total Population
Data from a recent population sample survey and statistical bulletins of various provinces published on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, three economically important provinces, have entered the stage of "deep aging", meaning that the proportion of the elderly over 65 in these three provinces exceeds 14%. Shandong has the most aging population, with 15.84% of the population over 65 years old. There are 15.95 million people over 65 years old, making Shandong the province with the largest elderly population in China. Statistics show that the population aged between 15 and 64 accounts for only 66.49% in Shandong, which is the only one among the four economically important provinces that is lower than the national average. It is also only higher than Guizhou, ranking the second to last in China. The low proportion of the working-age population in Shandong may be a follow-up effect of the previous serious implementation of the family planning policy. It is reported that between 1973 and 1991, Shandong had an average annual net population increase of 990,000 people, with an average annual growth rate of 1.32%, 0.62% lower than that between 1949 and 1972. After the 1990s, due to the stricter family planning, the average annual net population increase in the 12 years from 1992 to 2003 was 460,000, with an average annual growth rate of 0.52%, representing an average annual decrease of 0.8% compared with the 1973-1991 figure. The population of the province dropped to 7.06% of the total population of the whole country. According to the 1970 fertility rate, about 50 million fewer children were born in Shandong province in the past 30 years. In the short term, Shandong may not be able to reverse the downward trend in the proportion of its workforce.