International Agencies: Meeting Temperature Control Targets Requires Winding down Fossil Fuel Production
On December 3, the Stockholm Environment Institute, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other agencies jointly released the 2020 Production Gap Report. The report pointed out that to meet a 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Climate Agreement, the world will need to decrease fossil fuel production by roughly 6% per year. The Paris Agreement sets a target of keeping global average temperature rise well below 2°C from pre-industrial levels and works hard towards a target of 1.5°C. To follow a 1.5°C-consistent pathway, the world will need to decrease fossil fuel production by roughly 6% per year between 2020 and 2030, according to the report. However, countries are instead planning and projecting an average annual increase of 2%, which by 2030 would result in more than double the production consistent within the global fossil fuel production will be more than double the 1.5°C limit. To be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, global coal, oil and gas production would have to decline annually by 11%, 4% and 3% respectively between 2020 and 2030. The report also analyzes how the world can achieve a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy, and suggests that countries with higher financing and institutional capacity and less dependence on fossil fuel production should cut fossil fuel production as quickly as possible. But the report says big producers of fossil fuels such as Australia, Canada and the United States are expanding supplies. Countries with high dependence on fossil fuels and limited capacity need the support of the international community to achieve a fair transition.