The Characteristics of China’s Aging Problem in the Next 30 Years
Statistics show that there were 254 million people over 60 years old in China by the end of 2019, accounting for 18.1% of the national population, and 176 million people over the age of 65, accounting for 12.6% of the national population. The average life expectancy has reached 77 years old. Lei Xiaoyan, a professor at the National School of Development and director of Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies of Peking University, published an article today analyzing the characteristics of China's aging population from 2018 to 2049. First, the total number of the elderly population has reached a peak, and the aging degree has been deepening. The growth of the elderly population over 65 will peak in 2018-2022 and 2027-2038. Second, the structure of aging population is changing, and the phenomenon of advanced elderly (over 80 years old) is becoming increasingly prominent. Before 2038, it was mainly the growth of elderly (below 80 years old). From 2041, the number of advanced elderly (above 80 years old) will become increasing rapidly. Third, the working-age population continues to shrink and the structure of population tends to aging. By 2049, the proportion of older working-age population aged between 55 and 64 will be close to 27% of the total working-age population. Fourth, the total dependency ratio of the population has increased significantly, and the burden of the elderly care has exceeded that of child care. The gap between the old-age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio will widen rapidly, and the dependency burden is mainly reflected in the old-age care. Last, the family size is developing towards miniaturization, and the scale of empty-nest elderly is expanding rapidly. By 2050, the average family size will be only 2.51 people, and about 10% of the families will be empty nesters living alone. At present, the Chinese society has shown the characteristics of getting old before getting rich. The large number of elderly people, the rapid aging rate, the continuous increase of average life expectancy, and the fact that China is still in the developing stage, and the big gap in wealth accumulation compared with developed countries put forward higher requirements for the sustainability of future elderly care