Domestic Pork Prices Continue to Fall As Supply Increases
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the average price of pork in wholesale markets nationwide was 39.54 yuan/kg on November 2, a drop of 12.9% from 45.41 yuan/kg on September 30. Pig prices across the country have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks. From the perspective of weekly price, as of the fourth week of October, the price of pigs in the 500 markets monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has declined for 12 consecutive weeks: from 37.24 yuan/kg in the first week of August 2020 to 29.82 yuan/kg in the fourth week of October, a total decrease of 26%. The price of pork in the 500 markets dropped for nine consecutive weeks from 56.09 yuan/kg in the fourth week of August in 2020 to 47.66 yuan/kg in the fourth week of October, a cumulative decline of 18.3%. Agricultural researchers said the recovery in the country's supply of commercial pigs was the main reason for the decline in pork prices. In the first nine months of this year, the slaughter volume of pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 110 million, still 28.3% lower than that of the same period last year, but it has increased for two consecutive months month-on-month. In September, it increased by 9.0% from the previous month, marking the bottom out. At the same time, meat imports in the first nine months totaled 7.41 million tons, up 72.1% year on year. The supply in pig market in the fourth quarter is estimated to be about 170 million pigs and 13.65 million tons of pork in the fourth quarter, with year-on-year growth of 27% and 27.1% respectively. It is estimated that the live pig stock will increase to about 393 million by the end of 2020. Researchers expect that the national pig prices will continue to fluctuate and fall before the end of December. After entering the season of making preserved meat, the consumption demand for pork will increase periodically, leading to seasonal rebound of pig price, but the space for rebound is limited. In 2021, the pig price will be high at the beginning and then fall, the peak will appear before the Spring Festival, and the price will gradually approach the normal level in the second half of the year.