U.S. CPI for September Slowed
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the October 13, the U.S. CPI increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September from the previous month, rising for the fourth consecutive month, but at its slowest pace since May. As the outlook for economic recovery slows, the world is worried the Fed is facing increasing challenges in boosting inflation and the Fed's battle with low inflation is likely to become a protracted one. Temporary layoffs are turning into permanent layoffs as the labor market recovery continues to slow down. Without additional stimulus measures, many Americans will face an "income cliff" in addition to a test of corporate survival. In the United States, personal income fell by 2.7% in August, almost entirely due to a drop in unemployment benefits. As incomes fell, households began dipping into their savings to cover daily expenses, with the savings rate falling more than 3% to 14.1% month-on-month. Although US consumer confidence index reached its highest level in six months in late September, the sub-indices show that low-income households are facing sustained income and job losses compared with the modest gains expected by high-income households. Consumer spending is a key driver of U.S. economic growth. Institutions generally predict that U.S. gross domestic product will grow at an annualized rate of more than 30% in the third quarter, but such strong growth cannot be sustained. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others have successively revised down the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter to below 5%, which will also curb inflation expectations to a certain extent. The Fed has repeatedly reiterated that achieving full employment and a 2% inflation target are its top priorities, and the impasse over a new stimulus bill could accelerate a wave of bankruptcies among small businesses and destabilize the job market.