The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a press release that after preliminary assessments, the GDP of its member countries recorded the largest decline in the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The press release showed that the economies of OECD member countries contracted by 10.9% in the second quarter, down by 9.8% from the last quarter. According to the OECD, the impact of the pandemic on the economies of its member countries far exceeded the 2008 international financial crisis. On an optimistic forecast, OECD economies will shrink 7.5% this year and 9.3% if a second wave occurs in the second half of the year. However the composite leading index, released in August, shows positive signs of economic recovery, though it has not returned to pre-epidemic levels. The composite leading index is an economic tool to predict economic development trends. The OECD believes stimulus measures in many member countries have cushioned the negative effects of the downturn. Employment in OECD member countries has been hit hard. Data show that in the three months since the outbreak of the pandemic, OECD member countries have lost more than 14% of their jobs, and unemployment is expected to approach 10% by the end of this year, roughly double the rate at the end of 2019. If there is a second wave, unemployment could be as high as 12%. The OECD estimates that employment may only start to improve after 2021. While many OECD governments and companies are trying to save more jobs by cutting working hours, cutting wages and other measures, these measures may understate the current actual unemployment situation.