Predicting the Price Trend from the Market Price of Means of Production in Circulation
On August 24, the National Bureau of Statistics reported the changes in market prices of important means of production in circulation in mid-August 2020. According to the monitoring of market prices of 50 kinds of important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field, the prices of 27 kinds of products increased, 19 kinds decreased and 4 kinds kept at the same level compared with that in early August 2020. The kinds of products with increased prices include some steel products, lead and zinc ingot, methanol, polyester filament, liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas, gasoline, paraffin, coal, glass, wheat, cotton, soybeans, peanuts, urea, pesticides, rubber and pulp. Among them, the small increase in steel prices in mid-August is mainly due to the strong performance of raw iron ore prices, and the continued increase in costs provided strong support for prices. In the past ten days, the international oil price fluctuates and increased, and the supply of some products decreases. Downstream demand was relatively stable and there was a slow recovery trend, which makes the price of most oil and gas products rise. Due to the recent rainy weather, the delivery of coke to steel mills has been affected to a certain degree. At the same time, traders have been trading more actively, which has also pushed up the prices of coke. The reduction of corn, soybean meal and pork prices is worthy of attention. The availability of early corn on domestic market, the expected high yield of corn in the main producing area and the continued auction of temporarily stored corn have curbed the upward trend corn prices. China's continuing purchasing U.S. soybean and the abundant supply have led to further decline in soybean meal prices. Factors such as reduced consumption in hot weather and increased slaughter have led to a continuous decline in pork prices. From the perspective of price fluctuation, the large-scale increase in industrial raw materials will increase the production cost of enterprises, while the declining trend of key products such as pork, soybean meal and corn is expected to further promote the reduction of consumer prices.